**Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, accurate as of 6:00 ET, 9/13/19**
Miami Dolphins to COVER +18.5 vs. New England Patriots (-110)
This is the most polarizing game of Week 2, simply because of the margin. Miami was blown out at home in Week 1, while New England embarrassed the Steelers in Foxboro. Two vastly different starts to the season, that culminated in what might end up being the largest spread of the 2019 season. I don’t think the Patriots cover it, though. Historically, New England has had a difficult time in Miami with the spread, going 1-3 as a double-digit favorite since 2004. Additionally, the Pats are just 8-11 as a divisional road favorite and 4-6 as a road favorite in September, over that same aforementioned span. Miami, on the other hand, is 11-7-2 ATS in its last 20 home games against AFC East teams and 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games against New England. Also, for whatever this is worth, the home team is 14-3 ATS in the last 17 matchups between these two teams and the Patriots are 0-2 straight up in their last two games in Miami.
Talking about the disparity in talent would feel redundant at this point, it’s pretty obvious that New England’s roster is infinitely more talented than the opposition. For some reason, though, the Patriots haven’t been able to get it done ATS in Miami. To that point, it’s also a place where Tom Brady has had his fair share of struggles. In 33 career games against the Dolphins, Brady is 22-11, with a 60.7% completion rate for 7,700 yards, 63 touchdowns and 29 interceptions. Broken down, that equates to roughly 233 passing yards, 1.9 touchdowns and 0.8 interceptions per game. Maybe the Phins are marginally worse this season than they’ve been in years past, but we’ve only got a one-week sample size to base that conclusion off of. The Patriots struggles in Miami, however, can be traced back over years.
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