Well, my friends, we’re hallway through the NFL preseason, with a 6-3 record to show for it.
It almost feels like we’ve been given a flashlight in a room that might look pitch black to the causal bettor. That flashlight is all of the research we’ve done into NFL preseason trends are our ability to identify the value when we’ve found it. For the most part, we’ve trusted the numbers, regardless of what the story the odds were trying to tell.
In the spirit of transparency, I think the best part about NFL preseason betting is the fact that we’re all playing on a level field. No one is any better or worse at picking these games, because there’s absolutely no way to predict what’s going to happen. That means moneylines have significantly more value and regardless of the odds, any play can cash.
In Week 3, though, we’re headed into uncharted waters. Some teams, like Frank Reich’s Colts, are trending toward ending the tradition of starters playing in the third week of the preseason. The future of the standard four-game schedule has looked cloudy as of late, mainly because of today’s coaches questioning the importance of an entire month of exhibition.
In other words, this has made betting on these meaningless games even more difficult. You could usually bank on those starters playing this week and now, it’s going to vary team by team.
In any case, there are still a few games we’re looking at to stay true to form. The Baltimore Ravens should continue to dominate the preseason, as should Jon Gruden and the Raiders, and we like a ton of points between the Patriots and the Panthers.
Our job has been made even more difficult; thanks to the secrecy some NFL coaches like to deploy in an effort to disguise their oh-so-valuable preseason strategies. Fear not, though, we’re here to traverse those waters for you.