The wheels fell off on Friday. There’s really no other way to put it.
Neither game was particularly out of reach until the very end. It was around the seventh inning that Jorge Soler put the Royals up for good with a two-run jack and the now-awake Brewers extended their lead to seven runs. Fortunately, the Nationals gave us a little bit of hope when they took a lead in the ninth inning. That historically bad bullpen was alive and well, though, and the Padres scored two runs to walk it off.
Maybe I valued the Friday magic a little too much, but on the bright side, we can’t really lean on that anymore. Plus, it’s a new week. Sure, we might’ve only gone 4-8 last week with our picks, but that was including two 0-3’s. We win just one game on those two winless days and we’re 6-6. So, let’s limit the damage this week and get back in the green.
Here are our picks to get another week of MLB Betting Rundowns started.
**Odds official as of 6/10/19, 2:00 P.M. ET**
Colorado Rockies to WIN (-130) vs. Chicago Cubs
The Cubs have returned to form as one of baseball’s elite teams this season. At 37-27, they lead the Milwaukee Brewers atop the competitive NL Central by .002 percent heading into Monday. Still, like most teams in the division, the Cubs have been pedestrian on the road, posting a 13-16 record. Over its last six road games, Chicago is 1-5. Playing at Coors Field isn’t going to make it any easier for the Cubs. The Rockies have been one of the better home teams in baseball, boasting an 18-12 home record. Recently, though, they’ve been on an absolute tear, winning nine of their last 10 home games.
With probable pitcher German Marquez on the mound, Colorado has been virtually unbeatable at home. The team is 6-1 In his last seven starts and have won in his last six. It is a cause for concern that Marquez gave up eight (!) earned runs over 5.1 innings in his last start against the Cubs, in Chicago, on June 5. Still, his team’s record at home this season gives him the benefit of the doubt ahead of his redemption start on Monday. His opposition, Cubs’ probable pitcher Yu Darvish, has been rarely deployed in road starts as of late. Dating back to May 1, Darvish has only appeared in two road starts, against the Reds and the Cardinals. While Darvish was solid in those two games, three earned runs over 11.1 innings, The Cubs lost both. The last time Darvish faced the Rockies, he held them to two earned runs over 5.1 innings. Still, the Rockies only lost that game 9-8 after some late-game dramatics. Overall, Darvish’s away ERA sits at 3.64, his WHIP is higher at 1.45. While the Rockies seemingly potent lineup tends to be inconsistent at times, their 189 runs scored at home is the second-highest mark among pro clubs.
Atlanta Braves and Pittsburgh Pirates OVER 9.5 Runs (-116)
Between these two pitchers and the recent trends of both teams, this match-up should have high potential for fireworks. Pittsburgh now ranks as the second-best over team in baseball, while Atlanta currently ranks as the sixth-best. In the Pirates last 37 games, the over is 26-10-1. In their last six Monday games, the over is 5-0-1. The Braves have been involved in some high scoring affairs of their own, specifically at home. In their last five home games, the over is 4-0-1. Over a longer span, the over is 8-2-1 in Atlanta’s last 11 games.
The pitchers, though, will likely play the biggest role in this game’s total surpassing the mark. Pittsburgh is slated to throw righty Joe Musgrove, who has seen the total go over in his last four starts. In the last seven series-opening games that Musgrove has started, the over is 7-0. Braves probable pitcher Kevin Gausman’s season has taken on a similar narrative. His ERA sits at a lofty 6.15 ERA, so he usually allows the opposition to plate a few runs. In his last nine starts, the over is 7-1-1. It is important to note, however, that the under is 7-2 in the last nine meetings between these two teams. Still, the probable pitchers in this one should do enough to drop that record to 7-3.
Texas Rangers to WIN (+215) @ Boston Red Sox
It might be slightly too bold to go with such a heavy underdog on the heels of an 0-3 Friday, in such an important series for the defending champs, I recognize that. I’m going here, though, because betting against Chris Sale at home has been good to me so far this season and I plan on betting against the cold hand until it heats up. I’m not sure if that’s even an expression, but I’ll roll with it anyway. Couple Sale’s struggles at home with the resurgence of the Texas Rangers and you’ve got a longshot with some solid value. In their last five games against a left-handed starter, the Rangers are 4-1 and 7-3 in their last 10 games overall. They’ve struggled in probable pitcher Mike Minor’s road starts this season, though, going 2-5 when he goes the rubber on the road. The Red Sox are in a similar boat, though, winning just once in their last six home games. In Sale’s last five starts at Fenway, Boston is just 1-4. In his last seven starts that open a series, the team is 0-7. It won’t get any easier when the Rangers come to town. Through 28 road games, Texas’ 154 runs scored ranks 14 in baseball. Their mark of 28 games, though, is the lowest number of games played on the road by any team this season. In other words, the Rangers have scored the 14th-most runs on the road with the least amount of opportunity to do so. Their team batting average on the road, .257, ranks in the top-10 among all pro clubs.
Minor has put together a nice bounce-back campaign for the Texas Rangers. In six road starts, Minor’s ERA sits at 3.00. Over his last 16 innings of work on the road, Minor has allowed six earned runs. When comparing the potency of Texas’ lineup on the road with the inefficiencies of Sale at home, I’m giving the edge to the Rangers for an upset at Fenway.