Our MLB Betting Rundown picks continued to be good to us on Tuesday.
We followed up our perfect day with a 2-for-3 showing. The Tigers were three innings away from pulling off a 2-0 win in Kansas City, but three runs between the seventh and eighth innings for the Royals spoiled a 6-0 start to our week. Still, I’m not going to complain about a 5-1 start.
Today features the Astros making their second appearance in as many days and three NL West teams. It would take a colossal meltdown for us to finish below .500 for the week, so if our precedent is any indication, today’s going to feature a few winners. As always, we present the information and it’s up to you to make the decision with what to do with it. If I present a pitcher on a tear and equate that to his team winning, but you think the hot streak means he’s due for a loss, that’s your interpretation of the information and you should absolutely roll with it. When you win, we win. We’re also not opposed to you taking our advice, because as humble as we are at Betsology, we’re not against gassing ourselves up from time to time. This just so happens to be one of those times – we’ve been on quite the heater.
That being said, if you want to follow our lead again on Wednesday, by all means. Let’s get some wins together.
Or, if you want to pick against us, that’s fine too.
Need help filling out your daily fantasy lineup? Click here to check out our MLB DFS picks for June 12th.
San Diego Padres to WIN (-130) @ San Francisco Giants
In yesterday’s 6-5 loss, the Padres saw the Giants notch only their 12th home win of the season at their expense. Still, when a team is as bad at their home park as the Giants are, you can’t expect games like the one last night to happen with regularity. San Diego has been favored on the road in seven other games this season, it won four of those and 18 of the 34 games in which the team is straight-up favorites. When playing on Wednesday, these teams have seen very different trends develop. For the Padres, they’ve won nine of their last 13 Wednesday games. San Francisco hasn’t been near as successful on hump day, winning three of its last 17 midweek games. When it comes to winning consecutive games, the Giants have done so very rarely this season. Following a win, they’re are 8-18, the third-worst record in the majors.
With Joey Lucchesi on the mound, the Padres have found success as of late. In his last five starts, San Diego is 4-1 overall and 2-0 in his last two road starts. He did struggle in his last start at AT&T Park on April 9, getting tagged for seven runs in four innings. Still, the Padres have helped Lucchesi out in his last five starts, chipping in an average of 4.6 runs of support. The potential for more offense is there, however, with Giants probable pitcher Shaun Anderson set to duel with Lucchesi. Since his call up on May 5, Anderson boasts an ERA of 4.18 and a 1.36 WHIP. In his home starts, those numbers inflate to 4.80 and 1.53 respectively. San Diego will have a golden opportunity to bounce back on Wednesday against a lowly San Francisco team.
Arizona Diamondbacks to WIN (+126) @ Philadelphia Phillies
Next to the Mariners, the Diamondbacks have been one of the most frustrating teams for me from a betting perspective this season. It seems like as soon as I like an Arizona bet, the team goes and does the exact opposite. Team has solid odds as an underdog against the run line? They lose by two. Oh, they’re playing a great offensive team slated to start a pitcher with a 4.79 ERA? That’s easy money. Nope, they get shut out and the total goes under. Still, I’ll continue to look for value, even if it lies with a team that has burned me more times than I can count. This seems like the best time to try and squash my beef with the Diamondbacks. They’re in the midst of a 5-1 stretch over their last six and 4-1 over their last five road games. Against good home teams, Arizona has found even more success. In their last eight road games against teams with a home winning percentage of .600 or better, the team is 7-1. The D-Backs will be road underdogs for the 31st time this season. Over the first 30 games, they’re 16-14, the fifth-best mark in the majors and one of only five teams with a winning percentage above .500 as a road dog. That being said, I think I’m ready to give them another chance today.
Arizona gets a tough draw with probable pitcher Zach Eflin on the bump for the Phillies. In his return from injury on June 7 against the Reds, Eflin went for 6.1 innings and gave up just one run. In his last seven home starts, the Phillies are 6-1. However, in his last five starts against the NL West, Philadelphia is 0-5 and in his last four starts against teams with a winning record, the team is 0-4. From a historical perspective, the Diamondbacks are 10-2 over their last 12 games in Philadelphia. The game will likely fall on Arizona probable pitcher Merrill Kelly’s performance. It’s been an up-and-down year for Kelly so far, but he’s righted the ship as of late. In his last two starts, Kelly has logged 14 total innings pitched and given up just two earned runs. He also struck out 13 and walked two over that span. If Kelly can pick up where he left off in Toronto, the Diamondbacks have a good chance at winning this series.
Houston Astros to WIN (-132) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
The Astros winning at home with Justin Verlander on the bump is somehow the THIRD bet on the list. I think that’s a sign of the confidence I have in the preceding picks on this rundown, because I’m also supremely confident in this bet. Let me just preface this by saying you should lock this bet in like yesterday, because the odds are going to keep shifting toward Houston before first pitch and the value is going to dwindle. Getting the Astros, at home, with Verlander pitching for just -132 is an absolute steal. The Brandon Woodruff effect might have something to do with that, but I think it’s also overvalued. Yeah, the Brewers have won eight-straight with the righty on the mound and are 9-1 in his last 10 starts, but that’s more so a product of run support than it is Woodruff being un-hittable. In fact, he’s been pretty far from un-hittable. His ERA currently sits at 3.87 and he’s struggled mightily in June, posting an 8.10 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in two starts.
The streak of Milwaukee wins with Woodruff is remarkable, but if Verlander, with his 2.31 ERA and his 0.74 WHIP limit the Brewers bats, which he should, Woodruff will have to win a game against the potent bats of the Astros without the run support. That’s not to say that Woodruff hasn’t been masterful at times this season, but if he has to pitch in a close game, the 26-year-old will be in unfamiliar territory. Not to mention, Verlander has fueled a streak of his own for Houston. In games that the former AL MVP has started this season; the Astros are 11-3. I’m banking on Verlander and Houston to end the Brewers’ Woodruff winning streak tonight at home.
Other Props to Consider
- Wilson Contreras (+330) or Kris Bryant (+250) to hit a home run @ COL
- Lance Lynn OVER 5.5 strikeouts (-108) @ BOS
- Atlanta Braves 2-0 after first inning (+1000) vs. Pirates