Our MLB Betting Rundown week couldn’t have started any better.
We nailed all three of our picks on Monday, even our deep dive underdog pick of the Texas Rangers over Chris Sale and the Boston Red Sox. Today, for the first time in a while, we’ve got a perfect showing to follow-up. This time, though, is different. We’re hoping to actually sustain the success.
After crunching the numbers, we’ve found our favorite picks from Tuesday’s slate. Today’s rundown features match-ups between two of the worst teams in baseball – the Royals and the Tigers – as well as the team tied for the best record in baseball, the Astros. So, this one is going to have a little bit of everything.
Now, let’s get to it. Here are our best bets for Tuesday.
*Odds official as of 6/11/19, 11:40 ET*
Houston Astros to WIN (-128) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
They might be missing Carlos Correa, George Springer and Jose Altuve, but the Astros have continued to keep pace atop the American League. Over their last 10 games, they’ve gone 8-2, including a 6-1 road stretch and a 2-1 series win over the Orioles at home. Houston has also won the opener of its last six home series, dating back to the opener against the Kansas City Royals on May 6. In their last 26 Tuesday games, the Astros are 20-6. The arrival of Yordan Alvarez gave the lineup a boost in his first game against the Orioles on Sunday. The 21-year-old hit a two-run home run in the team’s 4-0 win. He also drew a walk in a 1-for-3 showing at the plate. If Alvarez can continue to rake, the duo of him and Alex Bregman could be enough to anchor the offense against in the team’s series against the Brewers.
We’ve already discussed just how the good the Astros are at home in previous installments of the Betting Rundown, but I’ll touch on that again. In their last four home games against a team with a winning road record, Houston is 4-0. Dating back to last season, the team is 37-15 at home and this season alone, they’ve already won 72.7 percent of their home games, the second-best mark in the majors. The Astros are an even tougher draw after a day off. So far, they’re 7-0 following a day when they don’t play. Milwaukee, on the other hand, has been a middle of the pack team when playing on the road, holding a 16-15 mark away from Miller Park. In probable pitcher Freddy Peralta’s last five starts, the Brewers are 1-4, including a three-game losing streak over his last three road starts. The Astros are 4-0 in probable pitcher Brad Peacock’s last four home starts. Look for Houston and Alvarez to come out swinging at Minute Maid Park.
Detroit Tigers to WIN (+122) @ Kansas City Royals
You might only watch this game if you have a betting interest, so if that’s the case, congratulations on diving deep with some bottom-dwellers. Also, keep in mind that you can find value in any game, even if it’s Tigers/Royals. That’s the case here, with the Tigers slated as underdogs for a Spencer Turnbull road start. Over his six road starts this season, Turnbull’s ERA sits at a lowly 2.86 and his WHIP a respectable 1.15. The Tigers are also 4-1 in his last five starts. He’s faced off against the Royals twice in Detroit this season, holding them to three earned runs over 13 innings pitched. The Tigers won both games, while Turnbull struck out 17 and walked three. Despite their 24-38 record, Detroit has actually been more competitive than you’d expect on the road this season, winning 13 of its 30 road games.
While the Tigers have struggled mightily on offense this season, Royals probable pitcher Jakob Junis has had some glaring problems of his own. Over his last six starts, Kansas City is 1-5 and 0-3 in his last three home starts. His ERA currently sits at 5.63 and has hovered around the 5.00 range through a majority of his 13 starts. In his lone start against the Tigers this season, Junis gave up three earned runs on six hits over six innings. He walked three and struck out eight. Still, with an allowed batting average of .279, the Tigers’ bats will have ample opportunity against Junis. If you’re looking for a reason to watch the Tigers or Royals, this might be your best bet.
Washington Nationals and Chicago White Sox OVER 9.5 Runs (-110)
Patrick Corbin road starts have been too good to me as of late, so you can’t be surprised that I’m going back to the well on this one. Since I took the Reds to beat him at home on May 31, I’m now 2-0 betting on Corbin’s last two starts away from Nationals Park. Will that improve to 3-0? I’ve got a good feeling about it, but I also know Corbin is good enough pitcher to get this figured out sooner rather than later. Still, when you couple Corbin’s 5.02 road ERA and his 1.57 road WHIP with the fact that the Nationals’ bullpen ERA currently sits at 6.43, the young bats of the Chicago White Sox should have opportunities to score runs, early and late in the game. Washington has been solid as an over team this season, boasting a 33-28 record. While the White Sox have struggled as an over team, last night’s total hit 13 runs in the first of this two-game series – the Nationals scored 12 of the 13.
Washington’s lineup should get more opportunity against White Sox probable pitcher Manny Banuelos. The left-handed pitcher owns a lofty 7.00 home ERA this season and has allowed five or more earned runs in four of his last five starts. If the Sox can add a few runs this time around, the Nationals bats should contribute enough against Banuelos to send the total over 9.5.