The 2019 NFL offseason belonged to the yellow mustache of Antonio Brown. He demanded a trade, denied a trade, and fired shots at teammates on social media. But what can fans expect to see from Brown on the field? Here is our third edition of NFL player props, featuring the polarizing wideout.
Over/Under 1,200.5 Receiving Yards
Considering the situation he’s left and the one he’s entering, oddsmakers are being pretty generous with Brown’s projected totals for the season. Brown’s former QB, Ben Roethlisberger, threw for 5,129 yards and 34 TDs last season. That’s 1,000 yards and 15 TDs more than Brown’s new QB, Derek Carr, recorded in 2018. Sure, Carr did not have premier weapons like Big Ben did in Pittsburgh, but both Jared Cook and Jordy Nelson had fine campaigns for the Raiders. Carr’s best year as a pro came in 2016. Not ironically, that was the last season in which he had a true number one target like Brown. It was Amari Cooper’s second year as a Raider, and the wideout put up 83 catches, 1,153 yards and five scores. So, should that be the bar for Brown this year, or should the expectations be raised for the veteran superstar? Oddsmakers suggest the bar be raised slightly. They expect Brown to record about 50 more yards than Cooper did that season. Brown is currently riding a six-season stretch of at least 1,200 receiving yards, with a career-high 1,834 coming in 2015. Last season’s total of 1,297 came dangerously close to the over/under projection he has heading into the year. Either way, the under and over have been given the same figure (-110).
Over/Under 9.5 Receiving TDs
Surprisingly, experts expect more out of Brown than Odell Beckham, Jr. this season. Oddsmakers project 100 more yards and one more receiving TD from Brown over Beckham. So, why is that? Beckham goes to a perfect situation in Cleveland, with an emerging QB and numerous stars to compliment him. The Raiders offense is devoid of talent, outside of newly acquired wideout Tyrell Williams. But maybe that’s exactly why the ceiling is so high for Brown. With no great options around him, it’s reasonable to believe that offense will revolve solely around the former Steeler. Could he top his previous record of 195 targets this season? Will he top 136 receptions as well? The 9.5 TDs, though, would not be a new best for Brown. In fact, he’s found the end zone more than nine times in four different seasons. He scored nine times in 2017, by the way. If Carr can at least match his relatively low number of 19 TDs passes from a year ago, it’s likely Brown will account for half of those scores. The over (-110) may be the way to go here.
Check back for more NFL player props as the offseason rolls along!