With the NBA All-Star Game less than two weeks away, teams aim to head into the break on the upswing. As we whip together our NBA DFS lineup, which players are looking to be Monday night’s top dogs on DraftKings? We’ve got you covered with our best DFS value picks, stacks, and must-start plays in our 2/4/19 NBA DFS picks.
*All dollar values according to DraftKings as of 2/4/19
Start ‘Em: Chris Paul, HOU @ PHX, $6,600
The Point God himself is the No. 8 point guard on the board tonight at a modest $6,600 against the Western Conference’s worst team. The Suns give up the second-most points per game in the NBA and allow big DFS nights to opposing point guards (surrendering nearly 53 DKFP per game to PGs). CP3 sat out Saturday’s second of a back-to-back in Utah so he’s working on three days of rest tonight. He’s put up 32+ points in all three games since returning from injury and even on still slightly restricted minutes, Chris Paul could be an excellent play tonight at the point.
Value: Tim Frazier, NO vs. IND, $3,900
One of the remaining healthy Pelicans who actually has a pulse, Tim Frazier is still deliciously priced under four grand despite a string of excellent value performances. Not only has Frazier strung together three straight games of at least 7.9x ROI, he’s hit 5x value in four straight and has hit 30+ DKFP in two of his last three. He’s an outstanding facilitator who protects the rock, and as one of the last bodies standing for New Orleans, he should be a rather common value add tonight on DraftKings.
Start ‘Em: Devin Booker, PHX vs. HOU, $9,000
Booker’s had back-to-back excellent outings that pushed his salary up to $9,000, tied for his highest price tag of the year. Booker delivered 57.25 and 60.50 DKFP against the Spurs and Hawks respectively, proving to be a nice addition to DFS rosters with at least 6.9x ROI in both of those contests. His assists are finally back up, dishing out 23 dimes over his last three games, as compared to only nine in the three games prior. He’s in store for another night of heavy usage and big-time volume, making him a quality start tonight against a Rockets team that surrenders more than 50 DKFP per game to PG/SGs.
Value: Reggie Jackson, DET vs. DEN, $5,200
Jackson’s been on an absolute DFS tear lately, bringing in at least 6x value in five straight games. He’s hit 8x ROI in three straight games, and has been north of 9x in each of his past two (42.75 DKFP, 46.50 DKFP). Averaging 43 DKFP per game across the first three games of Detroit’s homestand, Denver’s banged-up guard situation could be a major boost to Jackson tonight. Despite having Bovada’s lowest total of the night, Jackson’s outstanding run of form should make him deserving of a good, long look at just over 5k.
Start ‘Em: Buddy Hield, SAC vs. SAS, $6,700
Third in the NBA in 3-point percentage (46%) and fourth in made triples (180), Buddy Hield has shot the lights out in Sactown this season. Hield drilled seven 3-pointers two days ago against Philly, en route to a 50.50 DKFP night (7.5x value). The former Oklahoma sharpshooter has hit for at least 40 DKFP in two of his last four games and will have a fun match-up with DeMar DeRozan ($6,700) ahead of him tonight. Only DeMar and Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,900) outprice him at the small forward position on Monday, but Hield should provide some solid returns tonight at home.
Value: Jeff Green, WAS vs. ATL, $4,900
The Wiz and Hawks hold the honors of having Bovada’s highest total of the night (231), and there are tons of quality value forwards to target. Even in his new bench role, Jeff Green is one of the guys we’re targeting hardest from this match-up. His salary is the highest it’s been in almost a month, and by working primarily with the Wizards’ reserves, he’ll have the green light to shoot the ball way more than before. He’s jacked up at least 16 shots in each of his last two games, and that volume has translated into back-to-back games of at least 6.6x value and 31+ DKFP. No team defends SF/PFs worse than the Hawks (allow an NBA-leading 54 DKFP per night to SF/PFs), which makes Green a sexy play tonight at a shade under five grand.
Start ‘Em: John Collins, ATL @ WAS, $8,100
Having one heck of a second season, John Collins is one of our top big men to go after tonight with a sweet road tilt in D.C. ahead of him. The 2017 draft’s 19th overall pick is nearly averaging 20 and 10 a game this year for the Hawks, making him a top contender for the NBA’s Most Improved Player of the Year award. Atlanta wraps up its lengthy seven-game road swing tonight against the Wizards, a team that allows the fifth-most DKFP to bigs in the NBA at more than 55 per game. He’s gone for 41 DKFP or more twice in the Hawks’ three match-ups with the Wizards this year, including value nights of 5.2x and 7.1x in those games. The Wizards don’t have a guy that can really check Collins defensively, making him a worthwhile play as the night’s third-highest priced power forward.
Value: Darius Miller, NO vs. IND, $4,800
We told you to get on the Miller train last Wednesday, and he repaid us all types of handsomely with a massive 9.3x ROI effort to the tune of 35.50 DKFP. His price is a full $1,000 higher than it was on January 30th, but he still stands a great chance of bringing in Grade-A value again for the injury-ridden Pels. Miller has delivered 6.4x ROI or better in four of his last five games, and has topped 28 DKFP in three of his last five. He puts up a ton of shots from deep (averaging more than nine 3-point attempts per game in his last six), and will chip in with a few boards, dimes, and steals here and there. The Pacers have been reeling since losing Victor Oladipo with four losses in five games, and Miller should have a chance to shine again on the value side of things tonight at home.
Start ‘Em: Myles Turner, IND @ NO, $6,300
The No. 9 center on the board may be the guy we’re highest on tonight, as Myles Turner has a lovely little match-up against a Pelicans team lacking any kind of depth inside. The Jahlil Okafor ($7,100) pixie dust has been wearing off a little with such heavy usage of late, which means the ultra-athletic Turner should have an opportunity to put up some big numbers. He’s played at least 31 minutes in each of his last two games, delivering at least 31 DKFP in both of those contests. $6,300 is the lowest salary he’s been given since December 4th, and we’re buying up on every last bit of value we can get out of the Pacers’ talented man in the middle.
Value: Mason Plumlee, DEN @ DET, $4,100
Nursing a bum ankle, Paul Millsap ($5,000) was a late add to Denver’s injury report on Monday, which has us targeting Mason Plumlee in a potential high-value play. Plumlee’s been in a good run of form lately, eclipsing 5x value and 21 DKFP in each of his last two games. Plumlee has also delivered a minimum of 5x ROI four times in his last six games, including nights of 8.7x and 8.2x value on January 25th and 26th (33.75 and 32 DKFP). We like his value as it is, but should Millsap be held out or see his minutes restricted, Plumlee’s value only gets better for us from here.
Highest Over/Under Totals on Bovada
*Totals accurate as of 3:00 pm ET
231 – Atlanta Hawks @ Washington Wizards (7:00 pm ET)
230 – San Antonio Spurs @ Sacramento Kings (10:00 pm ET)
229 – Milwaukee Bucks @ Brooklyn Nets (7:30 pm ET)
227 – Houston Rockets @ Phoenix Suns (9:00 pm ET)
218 – Indiana Pacers @ New Orleans Pelicans (8:00 pm ET)
211 – Denver Nuggets @ Detroit Pistons (7:00 pm ET)
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